The Biggest Surprise From Washington’s Primary Election Day One

The initial data drop for Washington State's primary election was released Tuesday.  More data will follow for the rest of this week, then taper off next week until the certification of the primary election by August 23rd.  Here are a few surprises that came from the first night of results.

The Number of Statewide Contested Races Already Decided

Only one race for a Statewide Executive Office is still in question after Tuesday.  Three candidates are still vying for a spot in November's General Election for Commissioner of Public Lands.  Jaime Herrera-Buetler currently leads with 22.6% of the vote.  Sue Kuhl-Pederson is a close second with 20.2% of the vote.  Dave Upthegrove is also still very much in the mix with 19.8% of the vote.

The bigger eye opener isn't how tight the race is (it became an open race after current Commissioner Hillary Franz chose to run for Congress instead of re-election) but that the top two vote getters are Republicans.  If the current results hold it will be the first time since 2016 that two members of the Grand Old Party will meet in November for a statewide office.

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The Governor's Race Was As Expected But One Candidate Fell Woefully Short

Former Congressman and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert and Attorney General Bob Ferguson will meet in November.  That was expected from the time they both entered the race.  The surprise is who received the third most amount of votes.  Say what you will about Semi Bird, but the fact that (as of the first count) he has nearly doubled the vote total of a long time State Senator from King County is as impressive as it is surprising.

Young People Still Aren't Voting

Voters between the ages of 18-34 don't seem to care much for elections.  The Secretary of State's Office breaks those ages into two groups, 18-24 and 25-34.  Combined only 23% of registered voters in those age ranges have returned ballots.  Voters 65 and older returned over 51% of their ballots with 55-64 year olds at over 32% returned.

Voter Turnout Overall Is Abysmal

This year's primary is underperforming when compared to most primary years, but drastically underperforming compared to the last one in a Presidential year.  2020 saw an August Primary return of roughly 55%.  The Secretary of State is speaking with cautious optimism about the number of ballots yet to be received, but I can't see another 1 million ballots coming in by Friday.  Primary Day was the biggest return day yet and it topped out at just over 259,000.  Everything else yet to be received is coming by mail while many Primary Day ballots were from ballot boxes.

The Number of Voters NOT Returning Their Ballots By Mail

This might be the biggest surprise of all to me.  In 2019, in an attempt to increase ballot returns via mail, the Legislature passed SB 5063.  Beginning with that year's election the State would cover the cost for postage on all ballots returned by mail.  Fast Forward to 2024 and here are the number of ballots returned by mail vs ballot box.

49% of voters decided to leave their home and take their ballot to a drop box location instead of putting it in the mailbox.  All of the talk about ease and convenience and barely under half of all voters decided to physically take their ballot to a location.  Maybe it's time to revisit in person voting locations since leaving the house doesn't seem to be that much of an inconvenience.