Computer Simulator Says San Francisco 49ers Are Favorite to Win Super Bowl XLVIII, Seattle Seahawks Just 7% Chance
Here’s how the simulations work according to PredictionMachine.com:
The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage) and weather in each game.
The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.
After it's 50,000 simulations of the entire 2013 NFL season, The Predictalator concluded that 20.1% of the time the San Francisco 49ers finished as the champions while the Seattle Seahawks were predicted to win it all just 7.2%. These were two of only six teams that had a 3% chance or more of winning.
More interesting to see were the predictions for the post season. The Seahawks were simulated to claim the first wildcard and fifth overall seed in the NFC. While the 49ers are predicted to win the division and claim the top seed in the NFC. The Seahawks would then face the Atlanta Falcons in the Wild Card Round, getting revenge for the 2012 playoffs with a 27-26 victory in Atlanta. This would setup for a Hawks/9ers divisional round game where San Francisco wins 28-23 at home. The 49ers go on to win Super Bowl XLVIII over the Denver Broncos with a score of 31-27.
Take a look into the future with the entire 2013 season summary according to The Predictalator and see how the computer does against your predictions and the actual outcome. Obviously this is just for fun as fans are getting prepared for the season and there is no simulation for injuries, trades, suspensions, etc.
SideNote: My squad, the Cincinnati Bengals, came in at a measly 2.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. BUT...they are predicted to win their first playoff game since 1990!